Nick’s Picks: Week 4

     This week marks the quarter point of the college football season, as most teams will be playing in their fourth game.  Hopefully the results of this week are more kind to me, as I was only 5-4 in Week 3.  The good of last week: Georgia pulling it out over Arkansas and Texas squeaking out a win over Texas Tech;  the bad: picking Michigan State to continue their winning streak in South Bend; and the ugly: taking USC to roll over Washington.  As far as I’m concerned, it can only get better from here.  With that being said, on to this week’s picks.   

(#22) North Carolina at Georgia Tech:  Georgia Tech couldn’t get their offense clicking last week when they were dropped by Miami.  North Carolina didn’t put away East Carolina until they scored a late touchdown.  Neither team has been very impressive so far, and last year North Carolina shut down Tech’s triple option attack in a win.  However, I don’t think QB Josh Nesbitt will let his team drop to 1-2 in the ACC.  The Yellow Jackets make just enough plays to pull out the win at home. 
Indiana at (#23) Michigan:  Knocking off Eastern Michigan with QB Tate Forcier not playing well isn’t too much of an accomplishment.  This week the Big Ten season starts for the Wolverines.  Forcier will need to keep improving each week in order for U of M to stay in contention for a conference title.  In this battle of unbeatens (both teams are 3-0) I think Michigan RB Carlos Brown, who rushed for a career high 187 yards last week, will have another huge day and the Maize and Blue dominate.
Michigan State at Wisconsin:  MSU has once again disappointed in a season in which expectations were high.  I think this team is more talented and has better coaching than the Spartans of old, however, coach Mark Dantonio knows his team can’t go on a 3-game losing streak early in the season and expect to get to a New Year’s Day bowl.  Look for QB Kirk Cousins to rebound after a big mistake that cost State the game last week.  Camp Randall Stadium isn’t the easiest place to play, and I know I said in my “Ten Things I Think” column that MSU is looking at a 1-4 start, but I just don’t think they will let it happen.  Sparty will sneak out with a close victory. 
Arkansas at (#3) Alabama:  Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett had a huge day last weekend against Georgia, throwing for 408 yards and 5 touchdowns, but his team still lost.  Mallett is also the nation’s leader in passing efficiency.  He hasn’t faced a defense anything close to Alabama’s yet, as the Crimson Tide field what may be the nation’s best defensive unit.  LB Dont’a Hightower will be after Mallett all game long, and as UGA showed last week, he isn’t the same quarterback while on the run.  I was close to taking the Razorbacks in this one, but I just don’t think ‘Bama’s defense will be as easy to score on as Georgia’s was.  The Tide take it.
(#6) California at Oregon:  This game is interesting.  California has the ability to run the table in the Pac-10 after USC’s loss last weekend.  RB Javhid Best has planted himself thick in the Heisman race and QB Kevin Riley is playing well.  Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli is coming off a 4-16 passing day and hasn’t looked anything like he did last year in leading the Ducks to a Holiday Bowl win over Oklahoma State.  He is really going to need to step up Saturday for the Ducks to have a chance.  Cal squeaks out a tough win on the road.
(#9) Miami (FL) at (#11) Virginia Tech:  The Hurricanes have looked great so far this season, and as far as I’m concerned, if they win this game they should be #1.  That would be three wins over ranked teams in their first three games, and I think they will get it.  QB Jacory Harris throws the ball at will, and the ‘Canes rushing attack has looked great with Javarris James and Graig Cooper carrying the load.  Va. Tech QB Tyrod Taylor will need to have a big game if the Hokies want a win.  Miami’s offense is way better than Nebraska’s and should be able to put points up against a Tech defense that isn’t as strong as it has been in recent years.  Miami will cruise.
Illinois at (#13) Ohio State:  Illinois ended Ohio State’s undefeated season and knocked them from their #1 ranking two years ago with an upset at the Horseshoe.  QB Juice Williams had a career high 4 TD’s that day, and the Fighting Illini will need a performance like that again to hang with the Buckeyes.  OSU QB Terrell Pryor is a better version of Williams.  I would love to see Illinois pull another upset on Ohio State’s home turf, but it won’t happen.  Ohio State is the far superior team.
(#1) Florida at Kentucky:  I’d love to take Kentucky.  An upset in this game would just make my day.  Gator QB Tim Tebow can’t throw the ball downfield, but luckily for him and UF he won’t need to in this one.  The Gators will stay at the top of the polls for another week after they win.
Arizona State at (#21) Georgia:  Georgia QB Joe Cox tied a school record with 5 TD’s passing against Arkansas and has had two straight impressive games after a dismal Week One.  WR A.J. Green has also shown that he is possibly the best receiver in the SEC with two great games of his own.  The Sun Devils will be playing their first decent team after opening with three glorified scrimmages.  The ‘Dawgs are going to pour it on early and often.  Cox may tie his own record between the hedges Saturday night.  This one may get ugly in a UGA win. 
Iowa at (#5) Penn State:  Iowa ended the Nittany Lions undefeated season and national championship dreams last season on a last second field goal at Kinnick Stadium.  This year, both teams enter undefeated, and Penn State will be looking at their first real competition of the season.  I don’t think they have shown everything in their arsenal the first three weeks.  This game is in Happy Valley, at night, and you can bet the crowd will be in all white and loud as can be.  Is anything going in Iowa’s favor?  No.  And I don’t expect anything to all night.  Joe Pa’s squad moves on unscathed.
Notre Dame at Purdue:  Charlie Weis’s squad lost star WR Michael Floyd to a broken collarbone last weekend, depriving QB Jimmy Clausen of his best receiver until at least the bowl game.  Clausen himself is battling turf toe.  The Fighting Irish came away with a gritty victory over Michigan State last weekend, but know they would have lost had Spartan QB Kirk Cousins hit a wide open receiver in the end zone with just 30 seconds left.  He didn’t, and on the next play he threw the game-clinching interception for the Irish.  Purdue played tough with Oregon two weeks ago, then came out and laid an egg at home against Northern Illinois last weekend.  The outcome of this game obviously rides on which Boilermaker team shows up Saturday night.  I’m betting they will be pumped up for this primetime game at home, and this is my upset special.  Purdue takes down Notre Dame.
Texas Tech at (#17) Houston:  Red Raider QB Taylor Potts threw for 430 yards in his first road game last week and kept his team close until the end against #2 Texas.  Houston QB Case Keenum has put up Heisman-like numbers in his first two games this year, tossing for 725 yards and 7 TD’s against only one interception.  This is Houston’s first game as a ranked team since 1991.  It should definitely be a shoot-out, but TTU showed last week that they can still hang with the top schools even without Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree.  I would love to see Houston’s dream run continue, but I believe Texas Tech will prevail (upset special #2) in a game that could see each team score 50+ points.   

Note:  If I would have gotten this up in time to pick the (#4) Ole Miss at South Carolina, I would have gone with S.C. in an upset.  I think the Rebels are overrated and Steve Spurrier’s team is bound to beat a Top-5 team at home eventually.  As it stands and I am writing this, the score is 3-3 with 1:36 remaining in the first half, so my opinion is not swayed either way.