Nick’s Picks: Week 5

     I stand corrected.  After stating last week that the only place my picks could go was up, I naturally had an even worse week.  It wasn’t even the fact that I went 6-6 that really bothered me; rather, it was the scores of my predictions, and not just the ones I got wrong.  How about a quick recap, with what I predicted coming first, and what really happened in parentheses: Michigan to “dominate” Indiana (Michigan 36, Indiana 33); Michigan State to “sneak out” of Wisconsin wih a victory (Wisconsin 38, MSU 30 in a game that was not as close as the score indicates); California to “squeak out” a tough win on the road over Oregon (Oregon 42, Cal 3); Miami (FL) to “cruise” over Virginia Tech (VT 31, Miami 7); Georgia to “make it ugly” against Arizona State (UGA 20, ASU 17 on a last second field goal); and Penn State to remain “unscathed” after their Iowa game (Iowa 21, PSU 10).  Add to that that I missed on both of my upset specials, and it made for an ugly week.  Clearly someone who has never watched football could have done a better job than I did last week.  Alas, with all that being said, I now firmly believe that my picks truly can go nowhere but  up from here.  Hopefully I don’t put that theory to the test again this week.

(#22) Michigan at Michigan State: The records have to be set aside for this game, as it’s a huge rivalry.  Michigan has overachieved so far in Rich Rodriguez’s second season in Ann Arbor, and the Spartans have underachieved in what was supposed to be an even better season than the last.  U-M enters 4-0, while Sparty is 1-3.  Wolverine fans have to hope QB Tate Forcier’s sprained shoulder is feeling better, because he will be the key to the game.  If he makes freshman mistakes in his first road start, MSU can pull off the upset behind QB Kirk Cousins and WR Blair White.  Both secondary’s have been suspect early in the season, and each quarterback should be able to exploit that weakness in the other team.  This should be a high scoring affair, but how can I go against Michigan with how they have been playing?  Even after an off game against Indiana, I just don’t see them losing to MSU.
(#4) LSU at (#18) Georgia: Anyone that knows me knows that Georgia is my team.  I am somewhat biased, and that is putting it mildly.  In my opinion, LSU is the most overrated team in the nation by far, putting up unimpressive wins in each game thus far.  QB Jordan Jefferson has been sub-par at best.  UGA’s defense has been a remedy for struggling offenses so far this season though, with South Carolina and Arkansas torching the unit early in games.  For Georgia, WR A.J. Green is playing as good as anyone in the nation, and QB Joe Cox looks for him often.  Look for the ‘Dawgs to go up two scores early between the hedges and hold on to beat the Tigers in my upset special.
(#15) Penn State at Illinois: I really don’t know what to make of Penn State.  QB Daryll Clark struggled mightily last week against a tough Iowa defense, and RB Evan Royster hasn’t broken the 100-yard rushing barrier in three games.  The Nittany Lions were obviously overrated as they showed last week, but Illinois is just plain bad.  They failed to put up any points last week against Ohio State, and they may not put up any in this game.  PSU wins on the road.
Washington at Notre Dame: Fighting Irish QB Jimmy Clausen is still battling turf toe, but he pulled through in the clutch last weekend against Purdue when his team needed him the most, engineering the game winning touchdown drive.  Washington pulled off an upset over then #3 USC at home two weeks ago, then went out last weekend and lost to Stanford 34-14 in an uninspiring performance.  The Huskies are definitely on the rise, but I think they are going to have to wait one more year to beat the Irish.  Clausen sports a 172.9 passer rating and has shown vast improvement this year, and he leads his team to another victory.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas: A&M comes into this game unbeaten and untested, while Arkansas dropped a tough one to Georgia and then got blown out by Alabama last week.  The Razorbacks are a team with plenty of offensive firepower, and QB Ryan Mallett is a phenom in the making.  ‘Bama showed last weekend that Mallett is less effective while under pressure, forcing him into a 12-35 day for only 160 yards in a blowout.  Aggie QB Jerrod Johnson has tossed nine touchdowns and no interceptions so far this year, but has yet to face a decent opponent.  I want to take A&M but I can’t.  Arkansas gets the victory.
Auburn at Tennessee: Auburn has been flying high under new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, and QB Chris Todd is having an excellent season so far.  Tennessee has really been up and down, blowing out Western Kentucky in Week One, playing a lackluster game in Week Two against UCLA (and losing), holding Florida to 23 points in Week Three (also a loss), and then having another disappointing showing last week against Ohio in a 34-23 win.  QB Jonathon Crompton just can’t hold his own in the SEC.  Tennessee won’t rise back to elite status until they get a quarterback who can throw downfield and is accurate on mid range throws.  Crompton just doesn’t cut it.  Auburn moves on to 5-0.
(#7) USC at (#24) California: Cal laid an egg last week, getting thumped by Oregon on the road 42-3.  RB Javhid Best was held under 100 yards rushing for the first time all year, carrying for only 55 yards in the defeat.  His Heisman hopes undoubtedly took a hit.  USC responded to being upset by Washington with a 27-6 win at home over Washington State, a win that can hardly be described as a rebound.  The Trojans seem to lack the offensive firepower that USC team’s of old have possessed, and I think their reign atop the Pac-10 comes to a halt this season.  The Golden Bears will send USC to their second conference loss in only three games.
(#8) Oklahoma at (#17) Miami (FL): Miami is another team that disappointed last week, falling to Virginia Tech.  QB Jacory Harris needs to lead his team to a victory in this game if the ‘Canes want to keep their outside shot at a national title alive.  Oklahoma will once again be without Heisman Trophy winning QB Sam Bradford, who they thought would return this weekend from a separated shoulder.  Landry Jones will make his third consecutive start.  OU’s defense has been stellar this season, giving up only 13 points in three games and have shut out their last two opponents.  As much as I’d like to take Miami, I can’t.  Oklahoma’s defense is just that good.  OU goes into Miami and steals a win.