After a rather lengthy lay-off, I am back with more picks, this time for the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. The first week of the tourney provided us with some breathtaking moments, none larger than Ali Farokhmanesh drilling a three to put the nail in Kansas’ coffin or Korie Lucious stepping up in place of the injured Kalin Lucas and hitting a game winning, buzzer beating three pointer to drop Maryland. With 12 more games on tap this weekend to decide who heads to Indianapolis to participate in the Final Four, we are left to wonder (for one more day at least) who will become the new Farokhmanesh or Lucious, as well as who will be cutting down the nets and preparing for Indy. On to the picks.
Midwest Region (St. Louis, Missouri)
(9) Northern Iowa vs. (5) Michigan State: Each team comes in riding high after trying wins over Kansas and Maryland, respectively. Farokhmanesh has hit dagger three pointers in both of the Panthers tournament games, adding the game winner from deep in a first round win over UNLV. MSU has jumped to double digit leads in each of their first two games only to see each go down to the wire. Sparty will miss All-Big Ten PG Kalin Lucas, who went down against the Terps with a torn Achilles tendon. Lucious will need to step up again. Sharp shooter Chris Allen, who only played four minutes against Maryland due to an arch injury, will need to provide big minutes against NIU. I fully expect the Spartans to press at times, considering the difficulty NIU has breaking Kansas’ press at the end of that game. MSU should be able to out-athlete the Panthers and run them up and down the floor. However, this is March, and NIU will do everything they can to slow the game down. In the end, if Sparty can knock down outside shots like they did against Maryland (10-18, 55%) as well as push the tempo when they have the opportunity, they will be moving on to the Elite 8. Northern Iowa’s dream run is going to come to an end Friday night.
(6) Tennessee vs. (2) Ohio State: In my bracket I have the Buckeyes coming out of this region, and now that Kansas has been eliminated they have to be considered the favorites. OSU has everything you look for in a championship team: a super-star (Big Ten and possible National Player of the Year) Evan Turner; a sharp-shooter (Jon Diebler); a serviceable big man (Dallas Lauderdale); and a talented swingman who has the ability to do it all (David Lighty). The only knock on OSU is their lack of depth, as three players played all 40 minutes of their second round victory over Georgia Tech. Tennessee, meanwhile, has had an intriguing season. Star forward Tyler Smith was kicked off the team early in the season, yet the Vols were still able to defeat Kansas and Kentucky during the regular season, two teams what were #1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Wayne Chism needs to step up and keep OSU off the glass if Tennessee has a chance of pulling the upset. In the end, I just think OSU has too much for Tennessee and will advance to take on Big Ten rival Michigan State in the Elite 8.
West Region (Salt Lake City, Utah)
#1 Syracuse vs. #5 Butler: ‘Cuse has looked absolutely unstoppable in their first two tourney games, winning by a combined 55 points over Vermont and Gonzaga. The Orange will once again be without stud big man Arinze Onuaku, who will sit out his third straight game after injuring his leg in the Big East Tournament against Georgetown. Butler survived a scare from Murray State in the 2nd round and will need a good game from big man Matt Howard in order to knock off ‘Cuse. After slumping some down the stretch, Big East Player of the Year Wesley Johnson has put up big numbers so far in the tourney, scoring 31 points and grabbing 14 rebounds against the ‘Zags. Butler is definitely a team that can keep it close against Syracuse, but I just don’t think they can get over the hump. The Orange move on.
#6 Xavier vs. #2 Kansas State: These two teams have already met once this year, with K State demolishing the Musketeers at home in December. Guards Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente have been nothing short of magnificent thus far in the tourney, and the Wildcats have also been dominant on the boards, outrebounding BYU by nine in their 2nd round game. Xavier escaped against Pittsburgh when a three pointer clanged off the iron as time expired, and also had a little trouble with Minnesota in the first round before pulling away in the second half. Jordan Crawford will have his moments for Xavier, but in order for them to pull off the upset Jordan Love will need to duplicate his 14 points and 8 rebounds he had against Pitt. Xavier has the ability to keep this close, especially since this game is on a neutral floor, but in the end, KSU will be moving on.
East Region (Syracuse, New York)
#1 Kentucky vs. #12 Cornell: Cornell has been arguably the most impressive team of the tournament thus far, dominating Temple and Wisconsin behind tremendous three point shooting. The Big Red were the nation’s best three point shooting team during the regular season, and Kentucky will have to extend their defense to stop Ryan Wittman, Chris Wroblewski and Louis Dale from raining trey balls all day on them. Cornell will have most of the nation pulling for them to upset Kentucky, but DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson will be too much to handle inside. Throw in John Wall making plays all over the court and Eric Bledsoe hitting open three pointers, and this one should be a relatively easy victory for Kentucky. Cornell just doesn’t match up well here.
#11 Washington vs. #2 West Virginia: WVU just lost starting point guard Truck Bryant for the remainder of the tournament to a broken foot suffered in practice. While the Mountaineers still have Devin Ebanks and Da’Sean Butler, two of the best players in the Big East, but losing the initiator of their offense will not make things easy. Washington has peaked at the right time, coming in on a nine game winning streak. Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are the main reason the 11th seeded Huskies have made it this far; if the two continue their high quality of play, there is a great possibility of an upset here. With Bryant, I think WVU would have won, but without him, I expect the Huskies to pull out a close win and move on to the Elite 8.
South Region (Houston, Texas)
#1 Duke vs. #4 Purdue: The Boilermakers have defied the odds by even making it this far without injured star Robbie Hummel, who tore his ACL against Minnesota at the end of the regular season. Chris Kramer has really stepped up in his absence, scoring 18 points in an OT win over Texas A&M in the 2nd round. Duke, meanwhile, has not been challenged so far. The Blue Devils never let California guard Jerome Randle get into a rhythm, and as a result they were able to maintain a sizeable lead throughout the game over the Golden Bears. Kyle Singler shot only 1-11 against Cal, but Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer picked up the slack. Odds are Singler will not have nearly as bad of a game as he had against Cal, and Duke should be able to pull away late against a depleted Boilermakers squad.
#3 Baylor vs. #10 Saint Mary’s: The Gaels have looked unstoppable so far against Richmond and Villanova, with big man Omar Samhan leading the way. Samhan shot 13-16 in the upset over ‘Nova, but the Wildcats really didn’t have anyone that could match up with him. Baylor, however, does. Epke Udoh, an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, should keep Samhan in check. LaceDarius Dunn, who dropped 26 in the Bears 2nd round win over Old Dominion, will also need to step up. In the end, though, Udoh will be too strong inside for the Gaels, and Baylor will move on.
